A Mighty Flood No Longer – 2009 Elite
On the 28th of January I wrote a post titled "A Mighty Flood." The flood referred to in that post was the amount of 2009 Elite Extra cards currently on eBay. Additionally, I mentioned that if you were looking to buy "your guy," from 2009 Elite, the time might be at hand. I figured that it was probably time to evaluate that post and see if any of my assertions "hold water." In the original post, I ran a bunch of eBay searches and totaled results, I'll re-run them now, again, all confined to the baseball category. Here we go:
2009 Elite- Then: 4,591 results, Now: 3,357 results
2009 Elite AU*- Then: 2,406 results, Now: 1,162 results
Elite Aroldis Chapman-Then: 54 results, Now: 21 results
Elite Dustin Ackley- Then: 83 results, Now: 63 results
Elite Tate - Then: 57 results, Now: 49 results
I think the most notable drop-off in listings is in the "2009 Elite AU*" search. There will always be some Ackley, Tate and Chapmans listed. Those are the big names people busting packs are trying to sell to recoup their money. However, "your guy" that you were buying, there is probably a lot less of him on there and if there are still buyers, prices have jumped a bit. I know my buys certainly have.
Did you get all you wanted before things started to dry up? The mighty flood is now much more of a meandering river.
Grab that cash both hands and make a stash
In the relatively short history of modern prospecting; the Bowman Chrome era, we have seen some mighty leaps and some mighty big falls.
For example: How about Billy Rowell 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft non-auto Gold Refractors for $400? Or a Yovani Gallardo 2004 Elite Autos for $10. One good, one not so much, two of many possible examples.
Since the release of 2006 Bowman Chrome Draft, prices on prospects, even great ones at release have ebbed somewhat. Several factors have contributed to this; the global economic slowdown, the slower influx of new prospectors, the exit of people who once prospected but quit once prices got too high and probably lots of other reasons.
As a result, prices have declined a good bit and now even the best prospects are available for reasonable prices at release. Particularly when the market is flooded with options, like the month after BDP, Sterling and EEE came out. My point is better made with numbers though: so let us look at 5 examples.
2009 1st Round Picks:
3. Donavan Tate - 2009 Elite Auto /999 on-card - $20 per
4. Tony Sanchez - 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto - $10 per
6. Zack Wheeler- 2009 Sterling - $7 per, Elite - $7 per, BDP - $10 per
8. Mike Leake - 2009 BDP - $7 per
11. Tyler Matzek - 2009 Sterling - $8-$10 per
We aren't here to debate the merits of each of these prospects, but this is true: In each case, these players are near the top of their organizational prospect chart, have at least some scouts who are big believers, were highly touted in college and high school and perhaps even performed well in the minors.
In spite of all that, you still have the opportunity to build a large stash of this player at a relatively low cost per card. Maybe you buy 30 Matzek Sterlings for $300, Kershaw Sterlings once sold for $40 per so if Matzek gets even half way there, to $20, where Bumgarner is, you double your money.
So my question to you is this: Is it time to build a big stash of "your guy," or are there other reasons that continue to keep you out of the market?
Straight out of left field – Elite Series Insert Set
I've been posting a lot lately about opening 3 cases of 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition. Much of this posting is for entertainment value alone, however, the analysis is also fascinating.
When analyzing an Elite Case Break several things should come to mind: low #'d autos, names like Ackley, Tate and Chapman, Hot Boxes, a Pujols Auto #'d /20 and so forth. During my consideration of opening 3 cases, all of these things ran through my head. One thing that didn't was inserts, no, not the autographs, just the inserts.
On a whim, I decided to sort my Elite Series inserts into player lots and auction them off, I started them at $.99 and ran them for 7 days. My results were as follows:
Tony Sanchez7 Elite Series Inserts $7.39
Donavan Tate 4 Elite Series Inserts $0.99
Nolan Ryan 8 Elite Series Inserts $1.25
Dustin Ackley 4 Elite Series Inserts $3.25
A.J. Pollock6 Elite Series Inserts $0.99
Mike Minor 7 Elite Series Inserts $1.54
Al Kaline8 Elite Series Inserts $3.54
Albert Pujols8 Elite Series Inserts $10.49
Will Clark8 Elite Series Inserts $0.99
Total sales for my 60 Elite Series cards were $30.43. Now, you may say, that really isn't that much and right you are. However, when you consider that Donavan Tate /999 Autos were a "big hit," in the product and sell for less than that, $30.43 isn't all too bad. When you are trying to recoup case moneys, anything works.
School Colors and College Ties inserts are now for sale in my auctions, I wonder if I'll have the same kind of luck.
2009 Elite Extra Edition – non-auto parallels
Non-auto Elite paralells are the pulls that you don't want to see. You see a little hint of gold...you start thinking, "this could be that Gold Status Autograph out of five I have been dreaming off, IT IS Aroldis Chapman
!!!!...but but but, it doesn't have an autograph, its /50, it's all over."
This sums up the range of emotions I went through when pulling the card above. An Aroldis Chapman Gold Status Auto would sell in the 100s, the card above sells in the 10s and by 10s I mean 10 
.
In my 3 cases of Elite, I pulled the following:
26 Gold Status Diecuts /50 - Chapman was the highlight
41 Red Status Diecuts /100 - Tate was the highlight
99 Blue Aspirations Diecuts /200 - Ackley was the highlight
The question is, how much value will these provide me in sales? I have ever non-auto parallel I haven't already sold up in my auctions. If you want to flip through the auctions to see who is being auctioned feel free.
Post your guess here on my total sales, both on and off eBay and the closest to the ending total will win a random card I pulled from Elite. No, it will not be a base card, it will be something worthwhile, the auctions end Tuesday, winner will be announced Wednesday. For your guessing information, I've sold about $30 worth of non-auto parallels offline so far.
Let me know what you think!
2009 Elite Extra Edition – Grading Quality
I blogged a few weeks ago about how 9.5s have been a scarce breed in Panini brands thus far.
One of the things I speculated upon in the blog was whether Elite Extra Edition would yield any cards that were more grade-worthy. Rather than speculating based on secondary market sales, as I have had to do with other Panini products, I got to see these up close and personal.
I broke 3 cases of Elite, that is approximately 400 autos.
In my own humble opinion, none of the diecuts were worth grading, both auto and non-auto variety. I pulled 185 Base Autos and 116 Turn of the Century Autos, excluding redemptions. About half of those I eliminated because I determined the player wasn't "good enough to grade." Of the remaining 150 cards, the 36 below are the ones I selected to send to BGS. I was fairly liberal in determing what I sent. If you are now reading this thinking "oh, crap, I bought from him, he sent me the crap." Never fear, I didn't, I made my grading selections after making most of my FCB sales.
One other item was of note, the on-card base autos were in universally worse shape than the sticker autos. See below for a contest.
Dustin Ackley Base Auto /899
Chase Anderson TOTC Auto /25
Luke Bailey TOTC Auto /100 x 2
Bobby Borchering TOTC Auto /799
Rex Brothers Base Auto /699
Tanner Bushue Base Auto /652
Caleb Cotham Base Auto /549
Matt Davidson Base Auto /599
Kyle Gibson Base Auto /645 x 3
Brandon Jacobs Base Auto /725
D.J. LeMahieu Base Auto /645
Kent Matthes TOTC Auto /619
Jenrry Mejia TOTC Auto /844
Shelby Miller TOTC Auto /690
Bryan Mitchell Base Auto /699
J.R. Murphy TOTC Auto /840
Luke Murton Base Auto /750
Wil Myers Base Auto /799 x 2
Wil Myers TOTC Auto /50
Chris Owings TOTC Auto /799
Brooks Pounders TOTC Auto /844
David Renfroe Base Auto /695
Garrett Richards TOTC Auto /99
Mike Spina Base Auto /580
Max Stassi TOTC Auto /810
Donavan Tate Base Auto /999
Donavan Tate Elite Series Auto /199
Donavan Tate TOTC Auto /225
Zack Von Rosenberg Base Auto /770 x 2
Everett Williams TOTC Auto /799
Alex Wilson TOTC Auto /710
The contest is this, comment in the blog about how many BGS 9.5s (or 10s, but that won't happen) you think I will receive from this lot. The closest to the actual number wins a free elite autograph to be determined. If more than one person guesses the number right or there is a tie, both people will received Elite Autographs.
2009 Elite Extra Edition 3 Case Break Review
I've been slow on the blog lately due to busting and sorting of my 3 cases of Elite Extra Edition. If you are interested in seeing what I pulled, the majority of it is listed or will be listed on eBay shortly, see my listings here.
For now, here are a couple observations from my cases.
1. The Private Signings cards look really fantastic in person. I pulled an Ackley, a Hobgood and a Mark Fidrych.
2. Disappointing thing #1 - only one Gold Status autograph. Fortunately it wasn't a total dud, Neil Medchill.
3. Disappointing thing #2 - I pulled a Black Status Auto of Eric Smith.
4. Elite Series is by far the best looking insert set. College Ties and School Colors do not hold a candle.
5. The on-card autos do look really nice. They are a step towards Bowman Chrome cards which is a good thing.
6. I pulled 8 Dustin Ackley Autos and 8 Donavan Tate Autos. Being that they were two of the biggest attractions in the set, I got my moneys-worth from that perspective.
7. All the hot boxes were together in one area of the case. Thus it was possible and a ton of fun to bust 4 hot boxes in a row.
8. The cards are in bad shape, BGS 9.5s are going to be hard to come by.
9. I'd like to see the insert sets condensed with less subjects. The Throwback Threads Patch Auto, School Colors Patch and Throwback Threads GU Autos I pulled were all insignificant names. As some of the "rarer" hits in the set, it'd be nice if these were worth something.
10. Overall I give the product a B+ and my cases a C+.
2009 Elite Extra Edition – a few updates
As myself and others wait patiently (ok, maybe not) for our 2009 Elite Extra Edition cases to arrive, the only recourse we have to satisfy the cravings is window shopping on eBay.
The market is not yet flooded with cards, not even close. However, there are a few cards that have leaked onto the market and through this window shopping I've picked up a few tidbits of information I wanted to pass along.
So, without further ado and in random order.
1. Donavan Tate Base On-Card Autos are /999 - highest number we've seen yet and probably the highest number we will see. Not nearly as high as Porcello (/1299) or other big names in past releases though, a good number I think.
2. Non-Auto Gold Status cards are now /50, in prior years, they have been /25.
3. I think the Blue Aspirations and Red Status cards look the best they ever have, they really pop due to the bright colors.
4. I'm not so sure I feel the same way about the Gold Status cards, the color seems somewhat more dull.
5. Aroldis Chapman cards are already on fire, a non-auto red /100 and gold /50 sold for $150 best offer yesterday. His autos are going to be huge.
6. I really this this Dustin Ackley Elite Series Auto looks pretty nice, so does this Jared Mitchell School Colors Auto. In past years, I haven't liked the insert autos too well, this years look better.
That's all for now, I can't wait to rip!
More 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Print Run Information
2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition is slowly leaking onto eBay. On one hand, this irritates me a little since I won't get my cases till later in the week. On the other hand, we are obliged more print run information due to this...speaking of which, here is an update on what we know. I collected this information off eBay, it has not yet been officially release by Panini.
Dustin Ackley - Base Auto /899 - on-card
Aroldis Chapman - Base Auto /695, TOTC Auto /149
Donavan Tate - Base Auto still uknown - on-card
Slade Heathcott - Base Auto /754 - on-card
Jenrry Mejia - Base Auto /844 - mention in Beckett's box break
Jacob Tuner - TOTC Auto /799 - no base auto, only TOTC
Brett Jackson - Base Auto /534 - on-card
Shelby Miller - TOTC Auto - still unknown
Grant Green - Base Auto - still unknown
Mychal Givens - Base Auto - still unknown, TOTC Auto /299
Kyle Gibson - Base Auto /654, TOTC Auto /99
Chad Jenkins - Base Auto /785
Aaron Miller - TOTC Auto /650
Trayce Thompson TOTC Auto /699
Jiovanni Mier TOTC Auto /825
Matt Bashore TOTC Auto /655
A.J. Pollock TOTC Auto /499
Tony Sanchez Auto /435 - On-card
D.J. Lemahieu Auto /645 - On-card
Rex Brothers Auto /699
Randal Grichuk Auto /770
Andrew Oliver Auto /710
Max Stassi TOTC Auto /810
Kentrail Davis Auto /655
There are of course more but I thought those were the most interesting, should you be inclined to see what is listed of any of the players above, click the links and right there you will be!
Top 10 Autos in Elite you won't find anywhere else
I wrote an article for freedomcardboard.com about the overlap between 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft and 2009 Elite Extra Edition. This article is about repeats; prospects who will have more than one 2009 prospect auto or prospect card.
Although these autographs will bring some attention and value to EEE, they clearly are not the major reason people are excited about this product. So what/who are those reasons? Here is my preliminary list of the top 10 autos in EEE that you won't find anywhere else. I'm also including a guess about what price their base autos will sell for upon release.
| Player | Price Estimate |
| 51 Dustin Ackley | $50 |
| 150 Aroldis Chapman | $50 |
| 52 Donavan Tate | $40 |
| 60 Slade Heathcott | $30 |
| 48 Jenrry Mejia | $30 |
| 9 Jacob Turner | $25 |
| 58 Brett Jackson | $23 |
| 13 Shelby Miller | $20 |
| 67 Grant Green | $20 |
| 66 Mychal Givens | $15 |
What do you think? Is this your top-10? If not, who would you move in or out? What about the prices? I look forward to your thoughts!
Its not long now — DEEE 2009, first break in a long time
Like most of you, I have really enjoyed following the pulls and sales of 2009 BDP and those breaking it.
To be quite honest, I think that there are some very good buys to be had at the current prices. Since I'm still buying, I'm not going to name names but you sure do have to love the times where the market is flooded, flooded with opportunity.
That being said, BDP does not excite me from a wax breaking perspective....Elite does. Getting some good prices and using the bing.com discount, I feel like I have purchased my two cases at nice buy-ins. I am so looking forward to breaking them and seeing what is inside. This is me rattling the Christmas presents under the tree to a factor of 10.
Elite is really just a far different product from BDP, although their are endless comparisons between the two, it probably doesn't make sense. Elite is probably more of a hybrid of BDP and Sterling. More autos per box, more expensive boxes, less valuable base cards and so on. Wax breakers will love the early big money for guys like Ackley, Tate, Meija, Chapman and so forth. Prospectors love that there are 150 guys to sort through and that they can stock up on their guys' autos for $4 each. From what I've seen thus far, I love it all...and I can't wait.
I usually try to offer information, an opinion, some humor, a unique observation or a combination thereof in my blog...not really in this case. This blog is more just a verbal picture of me waiting, with excitement...just like kids do when they open their gifts under the tree.
I will post a full breakdown of my entire two case bust, in what some might consider gory detail on the blog after I finish it. For now, well, you will have to drool along with me at the pictures.
The on-card autos look to have come out very clean and very clear.
This really just reminds me of a Simpsons' episode, as does much of life. Homer has started a business, Mr. Plow (if you know what I'm talking about you remember the jingle). As a result of that, he has purchased a 30 second block of advertising on late night TV. The family is crowded around the TV at midnight, waiting for the 3:30 a.m. ad, Homer then says "lets play the waiting game!" There is silence for about 15 seconds and Homer then says "oooooooooooh, the waiting game sucks, lets play Hungry Hungry Hippo." The point is, waiting does suck and in fact, Hungry Hungry Hippo isn't exactly the most interesting game either but it beats waiting by a long shot.
Tom Petty was no Socrates but he sure was right, "the waaaaaaiiiiting, is the haaaaarrdddest part."
