A Mighty Flood No Longer – 2009 Elite
On the 28th of January I wrote a post titled "A Mighty Flood." The flood referred to in that post was the amount of 2009 Elite Extra cards currently on eBay. Additionally, I mentioned that if you were looking to buy "your guy," from 2009 Elite, the time might be at hand. I figured that it was probably time to evaluate that post and see if any of my assertions "hold water." In the original post, I ran a bunch of eBay searches and totaled results, I'll re-run them now, again, all confined to the baseball category. Here we go:
2009 Elite- Then: 4,591 results, Now: 3,357 results
2009 Elite AU*- Then: 2,406 results, Now: 1,162 results
Elite Aroldis Chapman-Then: 54 results, Now: 21 results
Elite Dustin Ackley- Then: 83 results, Now: 63 results
Elite Tate - Then: 57 results, Now: 49 results
I think the most notable drop-off in listings is in the "2009 Elite AU*" search. There will always be some Ackley, Tate and Chapmans listed. Those are the big names people busting packs are trying to sell to recoup their money. However, "your guy" that you were buying, there is probably a lot less of him on there and if there are still buyers, prices have jumped a bit. I know my buys certainly have.
Did you get all you wanted before things started to dry up? The mighty flood is now much more of a meandering river.
A Special Offer – Elite Ebay Auctions
I have a ton of 2009 Elite Auctions ending tonight. Click the link to the right to see what I have available for sale.
If you buy something from me and mention this blog, I'll give you half price shipping!
Jason Heyward Sales – A Case Study
Decisions decisions. You want to "grab those prospects with both hands and make a stash," but that prospect has multiple 2009 releases, which should you buy? This is the situation for many 2009 Draft Picks - Mike Leake, Tyler Matzek
, Jiovanni Mier, Matt Hobgood, Tony Sanchez and the list goes on. What about a player like Robert Stock? Base Chrome, an Elite auto and a 2010 Chrome Auto to come?
Let history be your guide. Perhaps the hottest player in the MiLB right now is Jason Heyward. His cards have seen a nice spike this winter. Because I have a gmail account that houses every eBay email I've received since 2006, I have the luxury of looking back on what Heywards sold for upon their initial release. I busted 2007 Elite, BDP and Sterling. Here is a sampling of initial sales and sales dates:
2007 Bowman Chrome Draft 20 Ct Lot- $112.50 - 12/9/07
2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Xfractor /299 - $36 - 12/23/07
2007 Bowman Sterling Auto - $37.64 - 1/16/08
2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor BGS 9.5 - $36 - 1/25/08
2007 Elite Extra TOTC Auto /169 - $56.55 - 2/21/08
2007 Bowman Sterling 9.5 Auto - $70 ea 6/8/08
2008 Bowman w/Chrome Auto 9.5- $60 - 8/8/08
..drumroll please, their sales prices today.
2007 Bowman Chrome Draft 20 Ct Lot- $155.86 - increase of 38.5%
2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Xfractor /299 - $38.89 - increase of 8.0%
2007 Bowman Sterling Auto - $62.51 - increase of 66.1%
2007 Bowman Chrome Draft Refractor BGS 9.5 - $48.63 - increase of 35.1%
2007 Elite Extra TOTC Auto /169 - $82.50 - increase of 45.9%
2007 Bowman Sterling 9.5 Auto- $98 - increase of 40.0%
2008 Bowman w/Chrome Auto 9.5- $109.99 - increase of 83.3%
3 Disclaimers:
1. My sales data is a small sample the prices are right when they came out and right now, as opposed to a more complete history. Heywards have dipped a little at times, so if you were opportunistic, your ROI might even be higher.
2. Items likely sell in a range of 10% above or 10% below any given price, this too will change ROIs.
3. When 2007 Elite, BDP and Sterling released it was not public knowledge that Heyward would have a 2008 Chrome Auto. This may have driven intial buy-in prices down.
3 Conclusions:
1. Any parallels higher than an Xfractor /299 in Chrome Draft have not performed well. They have Xfractors and Blues have increased somewhat but I believe Golds and Oranges may have not moved up at all. The combination of no ink and a Chrome Auto a year later killed them. Be very careful buying non-auto base cards from BDP.
2. Elite performed rather well in spite of other (read: Chrome) options. Base Elites /750 sell for over $60 currently. I believe knowing exactly how many autographs exist is something collectors like and something that differentiates Elite from Sterling and Chrome.
3. In spite of a 2008 Chrome Auto that wasn't known about at the time of release, 2007 Sterlings in both raw and gem form have performed well.
3 Things to think about for the Future:
1. Pay attention: don't overpay or undersell. As I mentioned, cards sell in ranges...you should pay attention and do your best to ensure you are buying at the bottom of the range and selling at the top of the range. For example: 2007 Bowman Sterlings sold for between $30-$40 at release and now sell for between $55-$62. If you bought at $30 and sold at $62, your return is 107%, if you bought at $40 and sold at $55 your return is 38%.
2. Anyone selling Heyward for 50%-100% profits ought to be pleased. He was super-hyped upon release and has lived up to expectations. He's not a guy to triple your money on, same thing goes if you are buying Dustin Ackley cards right now.
3. This is why grading makes sense. Lets say I bought a Hewyard Base Sterling Auto for $35, sent it through the FCB sub for $8 and received a BGS 9.5. I can now sell my 9.5 for $98 and I have $43 total into it, a return of 128%.
Obviously, anything with Jason's name on it is selling well right now, in the future I will try to run the same analysis on someone who has seen less of a price spike. Maybe this will help tease out which cards truly are the best investments. In Jason's case you could have made money on a litany of different cards and grading options.
Straight out of left field – Elite Series Insert Set
I've been posting a lot lately about opening 3 cases of 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition. Much of this posting is for entertainment value alone, however, the analysis is also fascinating.
When analyzing an Elite Case Break several things should come to mind: low #'d autos, names like Ackley, Tate and Chapman, Hot Boxes, a Pujols Auto #'d /20 and so forth. During my consideration of opening 3 cases, all of these things ran through my head. One thing that didn't was inserts, no, not the autographs, just the inserts.
On a whim, I decided to sort my Elite Series inserts into player lots and auction them off, I started them at $.99 and ran them for 7 days. My results were as follows:
Tony Sanchez7 Elite Series Inserts $7.39
Donavan Tate 4 Elite Series Inserts $0.99
Nolan Ryan 8 Elite Series Inserts $1.25
Dustin Ackley 4 Elite Series Inserts $3.25
A.J. Pollock6 Elite Series Inserts $0.99
Mike Minor 7 Elite Series Inserts $1.54
Al Kaline8 Elite Series Inserts $3.54
Albert Pujols8 Elite Series Inserts $10.49
Will Clark8 Elite Series Inserts $0.99
Total sales for my 60 Elite Series cards were $30.43. Now, you may say, that really isn't that much and right you are. However, when you consider that Donavan Tate /999 Autos were a "big hit," in the product and sell for less than that, $30.43 isn't all too bad. When you are trying to recoup case moneys, anything works.
School Colors and College Ties inserts are now for sale in my auctions, I wonder if I'll have the same kind of luck.
2009 Elite Extra Edition – non-auto parallels
Non-auto Elite paralells are the pulls that you don't want to see. You see a little hint of gold...you start thinking, "this could be that Gold Status Autograph out of five I have been dreaming off, IT IS Aroldis Chapman
!!!!...but but but, it doesn't have an autograph, its /50, it's all over."
This sums up the range of emotions I went through when pulling the card above. An Aroldis Chapman Gold Status Auto would sell in the 100s, the card above sells in the 10s and by 10s I mean 10 
.
In my 3 cases of Elite, I pulled the following:
26 Gold Status Diecuts /50 - Chapman was the highlight
41 Red Status Diecuts /100 - Tate was the highlight
99 Blue Aspirations Diecuts /200 - Ackley was the highlight
The question is, how much value will these provide me in sales? I have ever non-auto parallel I haven't already sold up in my auctions. If you want to flip through the auctions to see who is being auctioned feel free.
Post your guess here on my total sales, both on and off eBay and the closest to the ending total will win a random card I pulled from Elite. No, it will not be a base card, it will be something worthwhile, the auctions end Tuesday, winner will be announced Wednesday. For your guessing information, I've sold about $30 worth of non-auto parallels offline so far.
Let me know what you think!
2009 Elite Extra Edition – Grading Quality
I blogged a few weeks ago about how 9.5s have been a scarce breed in Panini brands thus far.
One of the things I speculated upon in the blog was whether Elite Extra Edition would yield any cards that were more grade-worthy. Rather than speculating based on secondary market sales, as I have had to do with other Panini products, I got to see these up close and personal.
I broke 3 cases of Elite, that is approximately 400 autos.
In my own humble opinion, none of the diecuts were worth grading, both auto and non-auto variety. I pulled 185 Base Autos and 116 Turn of the Century Autos, excluding redemptions. About half of those I eliminated because I determined the player wasn't "good enough to grade." Of the remaining 150 cards, the 36 below are the ones I selected to send to BGS. I was fairly liberal in determing what I sent. If you are now reading this thinking "oh, crap, I bought from him, he sent me the crap." Never fear, I didn't, I made my grading selections after making most of my FCB sales.
One other item was of note, the on-card base autos were in universally worse shape than the sticker autos. See below for a contest.
Dustin Ackley Base Auto /899
Chase Anderson TOTC Auto /25
Luke Bailey TOTC Auto /100 x 2
Bobby Borchering TOTC Auto /799
Rex Brothers Base Auto /699
Tanner Bushue Base Auto /652
Caleb Cotham Base Auto /549
Matt Davidson Base Auto /599
Kyle Gibson Base Auto /645 x 3
Brandon Jacobs Base Auto /725
D.J. LeMahieu Base Auto /645
Kent Matthes TOTC Auto /619
Jenrry Mejia TOTC Auto /844
Shelby Miller TOTC Auto /690
Bryan Mitchell Base Auto /699
J.R. Murphy TOTC Auto /840
Luke Murton Base Auto /750
Wil Myers Base Auto /799 x 2
Wil Myers TOTC Auto /50
Chris Owings TOTC Auto /799
Brooks Pounders TOTC Auto /844
David Renfroe Base Auto /695
Garrett Richards TOTC Auto /99
Mike Spina Base Auto /580
Max Stassi TOTC Auto /810
Donavan Tate Base Auto /999
Donavan Tate Elite Series Auto /199
Donavan Tate TOTC Auto /225
Zack Von Rosenberg Base Auto /770 x 2
Everett Williams TOTC Auto /799
Alex Wilson TOTC Auto /710
The contest is this, comment in the blog about how many BGS 9.5s (or 10s, but that won't happen) you think I will receive from this lot. The closest to the actual number wins a free elite autograph to be determined. If more than one person guesses the number right or there is a tie, both people will received Elite Autographs.
2009 Elite Extra Edition 3 Case Break Review
I've been slow on the blog lately due to busting and sorting of my 3 cases of Elite Extra Edition. If you are interested in seeing what I pulled, the majority of it is listed or will be listed on eBay shortly, see my listings here.
For now, here are a couple observations from my cases.
1. The Private Signings cards look really fantastic in person. I pulled an Ackley, a Hobgood and a Mark Fidrych.
2. Disappointing thing #1 - only one Gold Status autograph. Fortunately it wasn't a total dud, Neil Medchill.
3. Disappointing thing #2 - I pulled a Black Status Auto of Eric Smith.
4. Elite Series is by far the best looking insert set. College Ties and School Colors do not hold a candle.
5. The on-card autos do look really nice. They are a step towards Bowman Chrome cards which is a good thing.
6. I pulled 8 Dustin Ackley Autos and 8 Donavan Tate Autos. Being that they were two of the biggest attractions in the set, I got my moneys-worth from that perspective.
7. All the hot boxes were together in one area of the case. Thus it was possible and a ton of fun to bust 4 hot boxes in a row.
8. The cards are in bad shape, BGS 9.5s are going to be hard to come by.
9. I'd like to see the insert sets condensed with less subjects. The Throwback Threads Patch Auto, School Colors Patch and Throwback Threads GU Autos I pulled were all insignificant names. As some of the "rarer" hits in the set, it'd be nice if these were worth something.
10. Overall I give the product a B+ and my cases a C+.
2009 Elite Extra Edition – a few updates
As myself and others wait patiently (ok, maybe not) for our 2009 Elite Extra Edition cases to arrive, the only recourse we have to satisfy the cravings is window shopping on eBay.
The market is not yet flooded with cards, not even close. However, there are a few cards that have leaked onto the market and through this window shopping I've picked up a few tidbits of information I wanted to pass along.
So, without further ado and in random order.
1. Donavan Tate Base On-Card Autos are /999 - highest number we've seen yet and probably the highest number we will see. Not nearly as high as Porcello (/1299) or other big names in past releases though, a good number I think.
2. Non-Auto Gold Status cards are now /50, in prior years, they have been /25.
3. I think the Blue Aspirations and Red Status cards look the best they ever have, they really pop due to the bright colors.
4. I'm not so sure I feel the same way about the Gold Status cards, the color seems somewhat more dull.
5. Aroldis Chapman cards are already on fire, a non-auto red /100 and gold /50 sold for $150 best offer yesterday. His autos are going to be huge.
6. I really this this Dustin Ackley Elite Series Auto looks pretty nice, so does this Jared Mitchell School Colors Auto. In past years, I haven't liked the insert autos too well, this years look better.
That's all for now, I can't wait to rip!
More 2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Print Run Information
2009 Donruss Elite Extra Edition is slowly leaking onto eBay. On one hand, this irritates me a little since I won't get my cases till later in the week. On the other hand, we are obliged more print run information due to this...speaking of which, here is an update on what we know. I collected this information off eBay, it has not yet been officially release by Panini.
Dustin Ackley - Base Auto /899 - on-card
Aroldis Chapman - Base Auto /695, TOTC Auto /149
Donavan Tate - Base Auto still uknown - on-card
Slade Heathcott - Base Auto /754 - on-card
Jenrry Mejia - Base Auto /844 - mention in Beckett's box break
Jacob Tuner - TOTC Auto /799 - no base auto, only TOTC
Brett Jackson - Base Auto /534 - on-card
Shelby Miller - TOTC Auto - still unknown
Grant Green - Base Auto - still unknown
Mychal Givens - Base Auto - still unknown, TOTC Auto /299
Kyle Gibson - Base Auto /654, TOTC Auto /99
Chad Jenkins - Base Auto /785
Aaron Miller - TOTC Auto /650
Trayce Thompson TOTC Auto /699
Jiovanni Mier TOTC Auto /825
Matt Bashore TOTC Auto /655
A.J. Pollock TOTC Auto /499
Tony Sanchez Auto /435 - On-card
D.J. Lemahieu Auto /645 - On-card
Rex Brothers Auto /699
Randal Grichuk Auto /770
Andrew Oliver Auto /710
Max Stassi TOTC Auto /810
Kentrail Davis Auto /655
There are of course more but I thought those were the most interesting, should you be inclined to see what is listed of any of the players above, click the links and right there you will be!
2009 Elite Extra Edition – what we know
If you ever watch Man vs. Wild with Bear Grylls, you are aware of the fact that the man eats some pretty disgusting things. No, I'm not talking about raw fish, I'm talking about maggots from a rotten tree stump. There have been times where I have literally yelled, "oh sweet mercy, why would he eat that," out loud. The answer, he's hungry.
This explains why threads grow so quickly on an information board when long awaited information starts to trickle out. Ever since we found out who was in Elite Extra Edition, we wanted to know print runs of said autographs. Today that information started to come out via Facebook, Twitter and FCB. So in summary, here is what we know regarding print runs.
Aroldis Chapman Base Sticker Auto Print Run: 695
Dustin Ackley Base On-Card Auto Print Run: 899
Mike Leake TOTC Sticker Auto Print Run: 356
Jared Mitchell Base On-Card Auto Print Run: 370
Alex White Base On-Card Auto Print Run: 599
Tom Mendonca Base On-Card Auto Print Run: 569
Slade Heathcott Base On-Card Auto Print Run: 754
Jiovanni Mier TOTC Sticker Auto Print Run: 825
Donavan Tate Aspirations Sticker Auto Print Run: 100
Brandon Jacobs Base Sticker Auto Print Run: 725
These really make me happy. Heathcott, Chapman and Ackley will be three of the best pulls in the product. They are attainable, yet not overproduced. Perfect.
We of course have lots of print run information yet to find out, including parallels etc. but this is an awfully good start.
Enjoy the pictures.
