Penny Sleeves Thoughts on Cards, eBay and Sports in general

Tyreke Evans – Rookie Card Buffet

Tyreke Evans is the odds-on favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year. 20.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.0 apg and 1.5 steals-per-game. The stats don't lie, that is a nice stat line for anyone, let alone and NBA Rookie.

With Panini acquiring the exclusive NBA license in 2010, the basketball card market has changed significantly. So have the rookie card options. Panini has already released seven basketball offerings, and we know about four more that are on the way.

As a result of this, the collector has a ton of options available to purchase that fall in the "Panini" category of rookie cards. From what I can see, it appears that collectors aren't differentiating much between products, for example:

This 2009 Panini Limited Auto Jersey /299 sells for about $50 right now.

This Threads Auto Jersey /50, also sells for about $50.

This manufactured patch, from Rookies & Stars is #'d /349 and sells for between $45-$50.

It seems that to some degree, collectors are thinking "its a Panini release" and lumping the cards together, thus the similarity in prices.

On the other hand,  both Upper Deck and Topps had unconventional releases this year, 2009-10 UD Exquisite was multi-sport and also did not feature NBA logos for rookies. Many of the rookies, Evans included. did not have an autograph, only a base card #'d to 225. Topps Chrome also didn't have players featured in their NBA jerseys and instead of having thousands of chrome and parallels had a very limited print run.

Both of these releases are selling stunningly well on the secondary market right now:
Tyreke Evans Exquisites /225 are selling for $150+, a Gold /12 sold for $900!
Tyreke Evans Base Chromes /999 are selling for $30-$35, Refractors are even higher

Although there are many conclusions to be drawn from these sales, the ones that comes through the clearest are differentiation, rarity and name-brand.

Collectors like the fact that Topps and UD won't be producing more cards like the Chromes and Exquisites this year. Because of that, the ones that exist now are fairly rare. There are only 225 Evans Exquisite cards, total, for the year. Lastly, Topps Chrome and UD Exquisite have been THE standards of basketball rookies since 1996-97 and 2003-04 respectively. Even with some modifications, it is clear, collectors still respect and collect that.

It also makes something very clear for Panini. Differentiation between brands will be the most effective way to make the most of the NBA license. Producing 20 brands that look and feel the same will not. I'm not saying they have done this but it is something they must be proactive about not doing.

As a for instance, if they can make a National Treasures basketball card that is similar to the patch autographs we are seeing from the 2009 football release, they will give collectors a totally different card to chase and that would be a very good thing.

As with most everything else, time will tell how this will play out and we shall see if the Rookie Card buffet gets stocked with a variety of items, or if we continue to see the same dishes.